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Blog

My musings on all things political, technological, and social.

The logic of a two year-old

Nathaniel Pearlman

Mom comes back to bed finishing up a banana.

Ella, not wanting to go to sleep: "I want banana too."

Mom offers last bite from her mouth to child.

Ella, too smart for that: "No, I want my own banana."

Mom: "I don’t want to go back downstairs—I will get you banana tomorrow. It’s time to sleep."

Ella: "I want some banana"

Mom: "It's time to go to sleep"

Ella: "I want some banana now"

Mom: Ella it was the last banana. I’m only eating it because my feet hurt and it helps my feet. I’ll get you banana tomorrow.

Ella. Pause. MY feet hurt, too.

(parental laughter)

Ella more truthfully:  "Actually, only this foot, not that foot."

Burning Ben II

Political Mammal

It is not very often anyone gets to see his own brother burnt in effigy. Yet I was in attendance when a wooden man who's head was wrapped 360 degrees with photographs of my brother's head was placed on a bonfire in the mountains above Boulder, Colorado last weekend. See attached picture for explication.
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Company retreat-July 2007

Political Mammal

For the fifth year running, NGP held a three day weekend on a retreat in rural Vermont. We again went to my family’s land outside of Bradford, VT. Attendance was up again this year, and we made improvements to accommodate our growing numbers: a few hotel rooms (badly reviewed) for the less outdoors-friendly, a large tent for activities, catered food, badminton.
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Cucumbers and youth

Political Mammal

One of the best things about having a kid is the experience of seeing the world afresh. I was reminded of that yesterday when I suggested to my almost five-year-old daughter that we go to visit the cucumber plants we had started in the backyard garden patch this spring. I was rewarded by visible excitement as she danced her way to the back of backyard, exclaiming.
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Aristotle's misleading ad

Political Mammal

This month's Campaigns & Elections Magazine sports a fake front cover with a claim by Aristotle that "FEC Docs Reveal Huge Fundraising Advantage Tied to Software." Democrats and Republicans, they say, "raised up to $324,620.04 more by using Aristotle" than if they had used NGP. They base their ad, they say, on electronic filings by congressional campaigns in the 2006 cycle. I understand that Aristotle has also emailed the same ad, as well.

Does this fundraising disparity based on software sound like a plausible claim to you?

Their figures are derived by adding up all campaigns using information from FEC reports that also indicates which compliance software package the campaign uses.

It took me only a few minutes to discover why their figures are misleading.

I broke those same numbers down by party:

For Democrats: (NGP chooses not to service Republicans)

Average dollars raised by candidates using NGP (N=175) $1,269,307.75

Average dollars raised by candidates using Aristotle (N=33) $960,777.91

Conclusion: Far more Democratic candidates used NGP and NGP clients raised significantly more money than Aristotle clients on average.

For Republicans: (Aristotle serves either party)

Average dollars raised by candidates using NGP (N=0) $0.00

Average dollars raised by candidates using Aristotle (N=143) $1,568,806.08

Conclusion: Republican candidates in 2006, more incumbents, majority party, did well.

Ouch for them, a reverse of their big claim:

where there is a fair comparison, NGP clients raise more.

Note that, even though looking at their data by party and following Aristotle's logic (look up ecological fallacy) eviscerates their claim to superior software results, I do not maintain here that the numbers necessarily prove anything about software. As anyone who knows anything about political fundraising can attest, the dollars raised by a campaign is the result of many factors. What explains variation in fundraising by congressional candidates? Some important variables include:

1. Party (in the 2006 cycle, Republicans were advantaged by being in power)

2. Incumbency (plenty of studies show that incumbents have easier access to money)

3. Competitiveness of the race (heck, it is easier to raise money if it matters)

4. Tenure in Congress (I imagine that members who have been around longer can raise more)

5. Committees (membership in certain committees helps raise PAC funds)

6. Sponsorships (backing by groups like the National Rifle Association help)

7. Ideology (certain political positions make it easier to fundraise)

8. Candidate skills and experience

9. Other: (fundraising tools, employment of professional fundraisers, professional website, willingness of candidate to make fundraising calls, etc.) A multivariate regression that controlled for these variables might shed some light; though you would have to be sure to correct for simultaneity, because it is just as likely (or more likely) that good fundraisers choose good software, as that good software makes good fundraisers.

My educated guess about what explains why more Democrats use NGP than Aristotle is that over the course of a decade candidates have found us to be more helpful. Numerous candidates, including some of the biggest names in politics, have switched from Aristotle to NGP. And I would further guess that our candidates raise more on average because candidates in races that were close overwhelmingly chose NGP in the last cycle.

If you have made it through all these words, then I congratulate you and leave you with this parting thought -- consider what an advertisement like this tells you about the company that designed and paid for it.

10th Anniversary Party for NGP and Dan Bern

Political Mammal

We have made plans to celebrate the 10th anniversary of NGP Software, Inc. at the National Press Club in Washington, DC. It will be May 17; more details forthcoming. If you are a friend of the company, a client, a current or ex-employee, you are invited. It will be fun, and a chance for me to thank everyone that made this terrific ten-year ride possible. I have invited Dan Bern (www.danbern.com) and I am very pleased that he has agreed to come. We will hang out for a couple of hours and then Dan will sing.
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The Periodic Table of the Elements: exercising the old brain

Political Mammal

When I traveled to Europe earlier this summer with my brother to watch some World Cup soccer games, we engaged in a couple of knowledge-based contests to pass the time on our long flight to Munich. For instance, we each attempted to independently write down every country in the world, with each continent (more or less) a separate contest. We are both pretty strong on geography, and it turned out we had little problem dredging up the Lesothos and Andorras of the world, though neither of us demonstrated strength in Oceania. And, embarrassingly, I did not think of Azerbaijan. We moved on to other lists, like major little baseball hitters with more than 500 home runs (sorry Eddie Mathews and Eddie Murray, I forgot you). We tackled the elements of the periodic table cooperatively, something which I do think I have contemplated in over twenty years, since high school chemistry.
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A daytrip to James Madison's House

Political Mammal

It was a beautiful-weather Sunday. Family went to a pancake place in Bethesda for breakfast, where I read an interesting article in the paper about James Madison’s House (Montpelier) in Orange, Virginia. The National Trust for Historic Preservation is returning the house -- in painstaking fashion -- from a 55 room mansion built over it by the Dupont family to the smaller house in which James and Dolley lived.
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My perspective on vegetarianism

Political Mammal

I am very sympathetic to vegetarianism, and yet, so far, I remain an omnivore. I have a lot of close experience with vegetarians. When I was a teenager, both my sister and brother became vegetarians. (I did not, and they have both lapsed.) My wife has been a vegetarian since 1989—I met her for the first time in 1992.) And we have raised my daughter as a vegetarian since birth—four years now.
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Company Retreat-July 2006

Political Mammal

I just spent a three day weekend on a retreat with my employees in rural Vermont. For the fourth year running, we have gone to my family’s land outside of Bradford, VT--the place that I spent my summers as a kid (my parents were teachers). It is a lovely environment—a small house on a hill surrounded by a lot of gorgeous land. There is a pond, a stream, gardens, and fields where our neighbors run their sheep and horses. My dad is a nonstop gardener and landscaper. Numerous colorful daylilies and other flowers are everywhere, as well as a vegetable garden from which we harvested a few foodstuffs.
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Personal Democracy Conference 2006

Political Mammal

Yesterday morning, I took a very early am train to New York to attend a daylong “personal democracy” conference in New York. Conference title: “How Technology is Changing Politics.” I went last year as well. Five of my employees (Chris Casey, Chris Massicotte, Marin Hagen, Sean Robertson, Abbey Levenshus) also attended.
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Building things -- concrete or otherwise

Political Mammal

Last night I had dinner with my sales team. We went to the Melting Pot in Dupont Circle. It was an enjoyable evening with a significant helping of banter. One subject that came up during our conversation was the difference between types of work. We compared jobs like the framing part of construction, where there is a tangible feeling of progress and creation each day and where you have a visual and tactile relationship with your output, to office work.
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The perils of thinking your kid is just like you

Political Mammal

I thought I would cheer up my little daughter by frying up some potatoes for breakfast because she was missing her mom who had gone to work early.

I have not cooked up that particular dish in a long time. I thought it was a good idea -- it reminded me of the fun I had with my brother and sister when we were kids -- we would slice, cook and eat potatoes on summer mornings in Vermont. In those days we kids would have boiled them first (which turns out to be unnecessary if you slice thinly), then put them on the griddle with a little oil until they browned on both sides. A little salt and ketchup and -- tasty feast.

So I made a ceremony of it this morning. The sights and sounds were nostalgic to me. My daughter enjoyed watching (she me peel her potato -- I usually leave the skin on) and was enthusiastic about eating. But then she decided she likes ketchup, but not necessarily potato. She did not seem to have the same history with the dish as I did. I don't think she'll be clamoring for it again.

I felt a little deflated, but I ate up the rest myself. Maybe when she's a little older.